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      财经资讯 | 原油 | 黄金 | 白银 | 外汇 | 期货 | 贵金属 | 现货 | 网站地图
      您的位置:首页 > 外汇 > 10月30日外汇交易提醒

      10月30日外汇交易提醒

      2018-10-30 13:35:41 作者:admin 点击:

      外汇市场主要货币对昨日(10月29日)整体波动不大,美元指数上涨,受助于美国9月消费者支出数据增长强劲;美元兑欧元周一上涨,逼近上周触及

      外汇市场主要货币对昨日(10月29日)整体波动不大,美元指数上涨,受助于美国9月消费者支出数据增长强劲;美元兑欧元周一上涨,逼近上周触及的10周高位,因有消息称,德国总理默克尔不再寻求连任;英镑兑美元在周一纽约时段再度承压下跌,因美元指数走强,而英国脱欧议题却仍无进展;CNN恐惧与贪婪指数读数7,表明市场处在极度恐惧状态,较上一交易日持平。周二(10月30日)需持续关注这些事件的影响,另需关注欧元区10月消费者信心指数终值、10月经济景气指数、第三季度季调后GDP。此次预计欧元区第三季度季调后GDP增速将放缓。

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      英镑兑美元陷于1.28关口,前景仍然全面看空;英镑兑美元在周一纽约时段开盘再度承压下跌,因美国消费数据向好推动美元指数走强,而英国脱欧议题却仍无进展。此后,在英国财相哈蒙德就预算前景发表讲话时,英镑汇价一度反弹20余点,但在其讲话措辞无甚新意令市场情绪再度恶化后,英镑兑美元跌回了1.28关口。分析人士指出,能否守稳1.28关口,对于英镑后市走势就因而显得至关重要,这一点位若失守,即意味着下行趋势仍旧稳固,后市可能测试1.2662低位,反之,则需汇价重新升破1.30关口,方可确认反弹趋势重新确立。

      欧元暂时忽视近期经济数据的疲软表现,但意大利预算风险仍是反弹的重要拦路虎,欧元区10月PMI数据是个负面因素,但我们认为存在很大可能是暂时性因素造成了这样的疲软表现,但欧元似乎并未受到市场质疑情绪的提振,考虑到欧洲央行将近期因素的疲软表现归结于“动能不足,而不是衰退的体现”,我们相信欧元将会逐步走稳,不过若未来数据不能提供强劲支撑,意大利预算风险仍将成为欧元上涨的重要拦路虎。

      重要经济数据一览

      时间区域指标前值
      07:30日本9月失业率(%)2.4
      14:30法国第三季度GDP年率初值(%)1.7
      16:55德国10月季调后失业率(%)5.1
      17:00意大利第三季度GDP年率初值(%)1.2
      18:00欧元区10月消费者信心指数终值-2.7
      18:00欧元区10月经济景气指数110.9
      18:00英国10月CBI零售销售差值23
      18:00欧元区第三季度季调后GDP季率初值(%)0.4
      21:00德国10月CPI年率初值(%)2.3
      22:00美国10月谘商会消费者信心指数138.4
      次日04:30美国截至10月26日当周API原油库存变动(万桶)988

      全球投行观点汇总


      荷兰国际集团:欧元兑瑞郎料逐渐下降;

      ①荷兰国际集团(ING)分析师认为欧元兑瑞郎将逐步下降的至少两个欧洲政治原因:(1)很难说意大利政府和布鲁塞尔之间的僵局会在短期内得到解决,(2)英国退欧谈判的解决方案最早不太可能在本周找到;

      ②另一方面,尽管瑞士宏观经济方面上周表现相当疲弱,但我们认为欧元兑瑞郎仍存在上行风险,部分由于瑞士与欧盟就市场等效性进行复杂谈判而引发的负面新闻所带来的悲观前景;

      ③正如我们的经济学家蒙彼利埃所指出的,达成协议的机会岌岌可危,如果明年初不能达成协议,瑞士金融体系可能陷入困境;欧洲混乱的政治通常意味着欧元兑瑞郎的贬值——但由于瑞士陷入混乱,汇价稳定在1.13-1.14附近看起来是最有可能的结果。


      荷兰合作银行:欧元兑英镑存在上行风险;

      ①荷兰合作银行分析师认为,英国硬脱欧的风险正在上升,但仍认为达成贸易协议的可能性为50%;他们预计这一结果将导致英镑升值,但他们警告称,由于市场没有考虑到交易风险,短期内英镑可能承压;

      ②对于英镑的投资者来说,英国硬脱欧以及工党上台的风险,目前是一种难以接受但切实存在的风险;对于英镑来说,这些风险中的任何一个都是负面的,都将是极其不利的;本周将举行两场非常重要的英国活动,英国央行将于周一公布年度预算,随后将在本周晚些时候举行常规政策会议;两者都可能因政治不确定性而令英镑黯然失色;英国央行会敏锐地意识到了英镑所面临的风险,并可能倾向于强化一些强硬言论,以限制下行风险;即便如此,英镑目前仍可能处于非常危险的境地。


      三菱东京日联:短线看跌欧元兑美元和美元兑日元;

      ①三菱东京日联讨论了欧元兑美元和美元兑日元前景,短线均维持策略性看跌立场,认为未来数周欧元交投区间将下移至1.1200-1.1550,美元兑日元将跌至110.50-113.00;

      ②对于欧元而言,8月15日低点1.1301为下个重要关键支撑位,近期欧元的走软体现了投资者们对欧元区经济增长动能忧虑的升温,此前欧元区公布的系列采购经理人指数(PMI)均不佳;投资者们将更密切关注本周公布的欧元区数据,当前仍不明确是否如系列领先调报告所显示,核心经济数据将走软;

      ③在全球股市大跌的背景下,美元兑日元上行持续承受重压,与此同时,汇价受到良好支撑,日元不大可能大幅反弹,CFTC持仓显示日元空头仓位持续建立,若美元兑日元仓位缩小而非扩大,那么风险就偏下行

      注意:上述资料不应被视为金融市场上投资建议或指导性意见,仅作为阅读参考使用。金融交易有风险,投资需谨慎。

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