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      您的位置:首页 > 期货 > 恒指期货期现套利策略应用

      恒指期货期现套利策略应用

      2018-09-22 14:09:57 作者:admin 点击:

      目前很多投资者开始将目光转向,与港股相关的有哪些?投资者可以参与的股指策略又有哪些呢?我们以期货为代表,着重介绍在港股市场上的恒指期货期现套利策略。恒指期现套利的方法恒指

        目前很多投资者开始将目光转向,与港股相关的有哪些?投资者可以参与的股指策略又有哪些呢?我们以期货为代表,着重介绍在港股市场上的恒指期货期现套利策略。

        恒指期现套利的方法

        恒指期货期现套利思路和中金所股指期货的期现套利并无二致,即股指期货和现货指数间的基差具有一定的平稳性,在一段时间内会围绕一定的均衡值出现波动。一旦期现价差偏离均衡值时,套利者可以选择做空价格相对高估的一边,同时做多价格相对被低估的另一边,并在价格回归均值后平仓获利的一种操作思路。

        具体策略方面,目前市场上大部分套利方案均基于统计套利,这里我们介绍以技术指标布林带进行的简单均值回归策略。其主要思路为通过对恒指期货当月合约的基差波动规律进行分析,获得其合理的基差均值,并以此确定套利的平开仓线进行套利。其中,基差均值选取过去20个交易日的移动均线(MA20),而开仓线则选用偏离当前移动均值一个标准差的位置。同时,考虑到一定的风险控制,选取基差偏离移动均值0.1个标准差作为平仓线。

        需要注意的是,在具体进行恒指的期现套利时,现货部分由于不能直接买卖指数,我们将跟踪恒指的ETF作为现货,进行恒指ETF期现套利。目前,跟踪恒指的ETF指数基金品种相对较多,除直接在香港上市交易的ETF外,内地也有一些跟踪恒指的ETF。

        恒指ETF正向期现套利

        从基差波动的方向上来看,期现套利可以分为两类,分别为正向期现套利和反向期现套利。对于正向期现套利策略,当基差(恒指期货减现货指数)大于其开仓线时,可进行卖出恒指,买入现货指数ETF的操作;待基差回归至平仓线时,进行卖出现货,同时买平股指期货进行平仓。

        这里我们首先对恒指ETF正向套利进行介绍。ETF指数基金部分,我们采用了在联交所上市的盈富基金作为现货。一方面,盈富基金对于恒指的跟踪效果较好,且费用较低;另一方面,采用港元计价的ETF排除了人民币兑港币之间的汇率波动因素。其中,一手恒指股指期货约等于49000股盈富基金(每手500股)。

        表为恒指ETF正向期现套利举例

        以2017年4月为例,在2017年4月24日收盘时,恒指基差为52.52大于开仓线,因此依据策略的开仓规则,在收盘前以收盘价进行买入49000股ETF,同时卖出1手恒指期货。之后持有期现组合至2017年4月26日,收盘时基差为-7.43,收敛至平仓线下方,此时对组合进行卖出49000股盈富ETF,并同时买平1手恒指期货进行平仓。从组合收益来看,在不考虑交易费率的情况下,两天的持仓周期可以获得650港币的无风险套利收益。

        恒指ETF反向期现套利

        对于恒指ETF的反向期现套利,其操作方向与正向期现套利正好相反,即当基差小于开仓阀值时,进行卖出现货买入期货的操作,并同样待基差收敛后进行平仓操作。我们以2017年3月的一次反向期现套利机会进行举例。在2017年3月2日收盘时,恒指基差为-89.07小于反向开仓线,因此在收盘前以收盘价进行买入1手恒指期货,并融券卖出49000股ETF。在持有1天后,基差回归至-2.72,此时触发平仓线,因此进行买入ETF现货,同时卖平恒指期货进行平仓。在不考虑交易费率的情况下,1天的持仓周期内一共可以获得450港币的无风险收益。

        表为恒指ETF反向期现套利举例

        期现套利的注意事项

        在具体进行期现套利的操作中,还有其他包括期货保证金、手续费细节、持仓限制、港股的卖空(融券)操作、ETF申购赎回等一些细节需要投资者进行关注。

        首先,恒指期货端的操作上,投资者需要注意期货保证金、手续费以及持仓限制等细节。其中,期货保证金方面,恒指股指期货有初始保证金和维持保证金两类,并会定期进行调整。同时,按照不同的交易类别,例如单边、跨期以及跨商品组合,恒指期货对应的保证金额度也均有不同。因此,投资者需要关注目前操作策略下的保证金水平,并预留一部分期货端仓位,以应对期货端价格变动下的保证金不足风险。手续费方面,在进行恒指期货交易时,手续费主要包括三部分,分别是交易所费用的每手10港币、证监会征费的每手0.54港币,以及相应的交易佣金。而在持仓限额方面,港交所对期货所有合约月份持仓合共对冲值以10000为限。

        其次,针对恒指期现套利中的ETF指数基金的操作,我们需要对ETF的操作细节予以关注。从ETF申购赎回层面来看,以盈富基金为例,其最少的申购赎回单位为一百万个基金单位(或其整数倍)。因此,在不满足申购赎回的条件下,投资者可考虑在二级市场进行买卖交易。而特别针对恒指ETF反向期现套利,由于开仓时需要卖空现货ETF,这需要投资者对港股ETF的融券交易细则等方面信息有所关注。从港交所相关的证券借贷规例和卖空规则来看,对于融券交易也较为严格。一般来说,在进行反向期现套利操作时,需注意卖空的证券是否已纳入港交所可进行卖空的指定证券名单。同时,在进行融券交易过程中,从借入人所提供的可随时变现抵押品不得少于持仓市值的105%来看,也要求投资者对其融券账户进行合理的风险控制。

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