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      您的位置:首页 > 贵金属 > 衍生品工具解决有色金属行业痛点

      衍生品工具解决有色金属行业痛点

      2018-09-22 14:09:14 作者:admin 点击:

      在环保政策加码、供给侧改革深入推进的背景下,有色金属行情后期将如何演绎呢?12日,由华泰期货主办、中船重工物资贸易集团广州有限公司协办的“华泰期货有色金属产业风险管理论坛

        在环保政策加码、供给侧改革深入推进的背景下,有色金属行情后期将如何演绎呢?12日,由华泰期货主办、中船重工物资贸易集团广州有限公司协办的“华泰期货有色金属产业风险管理论坛”在广州举行,与会嘉宾对有色金属未来行情持较为乐观的态度。

        在凯丰投资有色研究员高山看来,今年以来,供给侧改革从黑色系品种扩大到有色金属,对需求一定有影响,但影响有限。对于铜和镍而言,今年废料政策影响较大,逻辑上会持续很长时间。

        华泰证券(601688,股吧)有色金属行业首席分析师李斌看好铝的走势,他认为铝价上涨周期没有结束?!肮└喔母锏酉薏?,运行产能预计从2017年7月的3750万吨减至3550万吨左右,年需求在3450万吨,供需维持紧平衡。2018年新增产能预计200万吨,对应3700万吨的年需求预期,紧平衡将是常态。国际市场供不应求局面短期也难逆转?!彼缡撬?。

        华泰期货高级分析师吴治君在会上表示,铝经历了多年产能和库存积累,未来或呈现振荡偏强走势?!奥疗诨?994年挂牌上市,是较早上市的品种,实力强大的产业资本在市场中占很大比例,他们不仅有现货,而且多年来与国际市场深度融合,可以说既理性,经验也十分丰富?!?/p>

        中船重工物资贸易集团广州有限公司总经理助理廖桦泽认为,铜产业内部分化加剧,强者越强、弱者越弱的格局正在形成。拥有资金和技术资源的企业需求还是比较强劲,但是下游企业发展愈发困难。他相信下游终端企业技术成熟之后,行业还会迎来爆发期?!拔颐枪径酝男枨笤谠龀?,其实行业对铜的需求是刚性的,只是终端品种和技术升级没有达到要求。在供给侧改革背景下,下游公司要不断进行技术升级改造,提高生产效率、降低成本,从而满足新的需求,往高附加值转变?!绷舞朐笏?。

        绝对金额大、毛利低、价格波动大、成本高是有色金属贸易企业的传统特点。据中船重工物资贸易集团广州有限公司有色一处期货业务负责人何智勇介绍,五大痛点始终贯穿于传统有色贸易生态链:在交易环节贸易层级过多,交易成本居高不下;物流冗长且分散,缺乏规模效应,面临货价在途风险;支付环节不成体系,信用体系脆弱,缺乏履约保障;资金周转方面,生产商面临先投入、后产出的资金缺口,贸易商面临赊销带来的周转资金不足和应收账款回笼困难问题;整个贸易链条都面临交易违约、市场价格波动、货权归属和融资信用等风险。

        据期货日报记者了解,有色金属行业痛点有待解决,利用衍生品是不少贸易商的解决方法之一。其中,利用基差风险代替价格风险是最普遍的方式。

        中船重工物资贸易集团在基差交易上有着多年的经验。何智勇将基差结构的影响因素总结为五方面,分别是库存变动情况、现货市场交易情况、保值商头寸移仓情况、期现套利情况和进出口情况。而基差的驱动因素主要体现在两方面,一是现货端需求驱动,二是价格预期驱动。

        在有色金属领域,近年来铜基差交易的市场有效性越来越强,铜基差交易的利润水平也随之收窄。相对于其他有色金属,铜期货参与度较高,月间价差交易机会较少。铜的基差交易是较为重要的交易模式,但是能做好的企业往往不多。在这种背景下,传统的基差交易贸易商该如何转型?面对越来越薄的利润,中游企业如何生存?

        廖桦泽说,公司的交易大部分集中在价差交易。特别是今年,这项业务资金回报率维持在30%—50%?!巴鹑谑粜郧?,市场参与群体较广,风险套利利润很小。我们的做法是,做整条铜产业链上的套利,将套利品种延伸到非标铜、废铜、铜镐、废铜镐等。另外,公司更倾向与对基差不敏感、更关注价格的客户进行合作?!?/p>

        值得一提的是,场外期权也为现货企业和贸易商提供了风险管理新思路。不少参会的现货企业表示,场外期权的灵活性、容错性,以及资金利用的高效性和操作的简便性,对于实体企业开展风险管理有较大的吸引力,实体企业对场外期权的认知度和接受度也越来越高。

        

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