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      您的位置:首页 > 贵金属 > 贸易担忧再度升温,黄金或再次让位美元 2018-10-30 09:45:14

      贸易担忧再度升温,黄金或再次让位美元 2018-10-30 09:45:14

      2018-10-30 13:50:43 作者:admin 点击:

      周二(10月30日)亚市盘初,现货黄金窄幅震荡于1230关口附近,因为市场对中美贸易局势的担忧情绪再度升温,多数大宗商品表现不佳,黄金的避险

      周二(10月30日)亚市盘初,现货黄金窄幅震荡于1230关口附近,因为市场对中美贸易局势的担忧情绪再度升温,多数大宗商品表现不佳,黄金的避险需求也有所减弱,美元进一步获得避险资金的青睐,而且美联储的加息前景也给美元提供支撑,金价短线下行风险有所增加。

      ★基本面消息:

      ①贸易局势担忧再度升温

      有报道称,若中美国家领导人下个月在G20峰会的会谈不能缓解贸易战局势,美国考虑对所有剩余中国进口商品征收关税。清单将包括前几轮关税战中没有覆盖的进口商品,根据去年的进口数据,可能涉及2570亿美元商品。尽管还未做最终决定,但美国官员正在为这一情况做准备。


      另外,美国方面周一(10月29日)决定切断美国对一家中国的半导体制造商的零部件、软件和技术产品出口。美国还表示,对欧盟在世界贸易组织(WTO)推进针对美国和铝关税的诉讼“深感失望”,并敦促欧盟成员国认真考虑双方更广泛的利益;继续就美国关税争端举行听证会,将损害世贸组织的生存能力。


      受这些消息影响,隔夜美国股市由涨转跌,而且是由2%的涨幅转为1%左右的跌幅;道琼工业指数收跌0.99%;标普500指数跌0.66%;纳斯达克指数收跌1.63%。标普500指数从历史高点的跌幅接近11%,险些确认2018年二度进入修正区间。


      小编提醒,尽管贸易局势的担忧升温会催生一些避险情绪,但过去近半年的时间内,这种担忧情绪都令资金涌入美元,因为担忧需求前景,大宗商品普遍表现不佳,金价也随之走弱,包括商品货币;如今对贸易的担忧情绪,金价面临的下行风险再次增加。


      ②德国总理默克尔宣布不再担任执政党主席,政治生涯拟在2021年落幕;


      德国总理默克尔周一表示,将在她目前的第四个德国总理任期届满后卸任,她将不再担任德国基督教民主党(CDU)主席,预示着欧洲政坛的默克尔时代即将结束。默克尔自2000年后就担任基民党主席,自2005年起担任德国总理。该党在地方选举中接连受挫后,默克尔宣布了这项决定。


      小编提醒,该消息对欧元有所拖累,进而给美元提供了一些上涨动能,金价也部分受到压制,不过影响可能相对短暂。


      ③意大利政府考虑削减2019年预算赤字的方法


      一位意大利政府消息人士周一表示,如果2019年政府预算中的两项主要成本证明低于预期,那么节省下来的资金可能会用于削减预算赤字。这位消息人士称,任何未使用的资金都可能被用于将预算赤字降至相当于国内生产总值(GDP)2.4%的政府目标之下。


      两名政府消息人士称,意大利议会将于周三(10月31日)开始讨论该国政府2019年的预算草案。该预算案须在今年年底前得到议会两院的批准。一位消息人士称,该文件将于周二送交议会各委员会进行初步讨论,另一位消息人士称,文件将于周二或周三送交各委员会。


      小编提醒,该消息暗示意大利的预算问题存在缓和的可能性,市场的担忧情绪略略微有所减弱,欧洲股市隔夜也曾企稳反弹,轻微利空金价。


      ④美国PCE数据符合预期,但也有隐患


      隔夜数据显示,美国9月核心PCE物价指数同步增长2%,维持在近六年半的最高水平;美国9月个人支出环比增长0.4%,为连续第七个月增长。


      小编提醒,这两个数据都基本符合市场预期,短线影响较??;中线有望给美联储继续继续提供支撑,不过有分析人士指出,因薪资增长温和,美国7月收入录得一年多来最小增幅,暗示当前的支出步伐不太可能持续。


      美国商务部发布的报告还显示,美国家庭可支配收入的增幅为15个月来最低,储蓄降至去年12月以来的最低水平。有迹象表明,特朗普政府1.5万亿美元减税计划的刺激效果已经见顶。利率上升,以及股市暴跌后家庭财富缩水也给支出蒙上了阴影。

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