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      您的位置:首页 > 现货 > 市场人士:钢铁业利润有望向焦化行业转移

      市场人士:钢铁业利润有望向焦化行业转移

      2018-09-22 14:09:51 作者:admin 点击:

      1月20日,由国信期货等主办的“私募宏愿,国信相伴”主题活动在深圳举行。与会嘉宾就2018年上半年宏观市场研判表示,受供给侧改革影响,部分商品价格处于较高水平,预计商品价

        1月20日,由国信期货等主办的“私募宏愿,国信相伴”主题活动在深圳举行。与会嘉宾就2018年上半年宏观市场研判表示,受供给侧改革影响,部分商品价格处于较高水平,预计商品价格快速上涨可能性不大。细化到黑色系,钢材利润有望部分转移到焦化行业,双焦价格重心或将上移。

        国信泰九舆情掘金委员会委员刘锦表示,2015年以来,在行政性去产能、去库存的推动下,商品市场供需失衡已得到明显改善,未来可能会逐步减少行政性干预,转向诸如环保、信贷政策等操作,来进一步巩固去产能、去库存等供给侧结构性改革的效果。

        “对于商品市场而言,在流动性中性适度的条件下,商品价格将主要取决于供需匹配情况。目前来看,环保限产等操作的短期冲击可能较大,但却并不具备持久冲击的基础,加之此前去产能力度较大,部分商品价格已经处在较高水平,预计2018年商品价格继续快速上涨的空间不大,建议把握进出时点,谨慎操作?!绷踅跛?。

        去年,在供给侧改革的背景下,黑色系商品期货势头汹涌,2018年走势如何呢?在国信期货研发部主管徐超看来,宏观方面,2018年美元有望再次加息3次,这将给其他国家货币政策带来压力。全球经济整体温和复苏,局部过热,中国与美国经济领涨全球。国内在房地产调控的背景下,基建投资方面将承担更多责任,建材系市场维持重心上移。

        他认为,受到吨钢利润维持高位及钢材市场供给侧改革稳步推行影响,黑色产业链利润将继续维持乐观水平。同时,钢材利润有望部分往焦煤及焦化行业转移,双焦价格重心上行,限产及复产等季节性机会增多,对冲套利机会将会不断出现?!叭杲固考鄹窈诵脑诵星湓ぜ圃?600—1850—2500元/吨附近,其中,1850元/吨为平均价格,1600元/吨为支撑位,2500元/吨为压力位,焦煤价格核心运行区间预计在1000—1250—1500元/吨附近?!?/p>

        刘锦表示,对股票市场而言,总量性行情难现,但与经济转型升级以及效率提升密切相关的行业或企业具有较大的投资价值,建议关注以下机会:其一,去杠杆中的投资机会。一方面在控制宏观杠杆率的要求下,股票融资的需求有望快速增加,另一方面杠杆率的有效控制也有利于提高企业效率、释放企业活力,增强企业盈利能力,建议关注去杠杆中的国企改革机会。其二,战略布局消费结构升级中的成长型行业龙头。随着我国社会主要矛盾的改变,消费升级有望成为主导经济结构调整的重要力量,加之补短板还会进一步释放出高质量的消费需求,建议战略性布局医疗、教育、休闲娱乐、智能家居等高成长行业龙头企业。其三,战略布局制造业转型升级的机会。目前我国制造业总体依然处在产能出清的阶段,但随着人工智能、信息化时代的到来,制造业有望步入全新发展时代,加之国家的制造业强国战略,制造业有望在不久的将来迎来真正的发展机遇,建议可重点关注5G、芯片、人工智能等新兴产业的龙头企业。

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