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      您的位置:首页 > 现货 > 铁矿石价格令产业巨头犯难

      铁矿石价格令产业巨头犯难

      2018-09-22 14:10:01 作者:admin 点击:

      去年下半年,国际大宗商品价格回暖,尤其是第四季度铁矿石价格上涨,从2016年年初吨价不到40美元上涨至目前的超过92美元,令多个矿业巨头财务报表飘红。力拓集团首席执行官夏

        去年下半年,国际大宗商品价格回暖,尤其是第四季度铁矿石价格上涨,从2016年年初吨价不到40美元上涨至目前的超过92美元,令多个矿业巨头财务报表飘红。

        力拓集团首席执行官夏杰思日前在北京透露,力拓净利润从2015年亏损8.66亿美元大幅升至2016年净利润46.17亿美元,营收为338亿美元。

        不过对于今年铁矿石的价格,巨头们却有些无法把握。夏杰思认为,在影响铁矿石价格的诸多因素中,中国的因素最为重要,特别是中国矿山产量将影响铁矿石价格,而这个产量难以把握。

        四因素影响铁矿石价格

        力拓、必和必拓、淡水河谷并称为铁矿石三巨头,也是中国铁矿石的主要供应商。目前,中国铁矿石八成以上需要进口,去年中国进口了10.24亿吨铁矿石,同比增长7.5%。

        夏杰思对媒体表示,力拓去年的营收中有43%来自中国,这让中国因素在铁矿石价格中发挥重要作用。

        夏杰思认为有四个因素能够影响铁矿石价格,其中三个与中国相关。

        首先是中国的经济状况。夏杰思对中国的经济发展前景并不担忧,因为中国政府依然大力支持对基础设施建设的投资。

        其次是中国钢铁行业的改革。中国正在执行“去产能”政策,2016年对钢铁行业消减了6500万吨过剩产能,今年计划再削减5000万吨过剩产能。夏杰思认为,去产能会促使中国钢厂更倾向于选择像力拓这样高品位的矿石,对力拓来说是利好。他走访了很多中国钢厂,发现中国目前的高炉利用率保持在70%~75%?!叭绻恍┬⌒?、效率低、污染高的高炉被关停,而大型高效的高炉在运转,这对实际产量影响并不是很大”。

        再次是中国国内矿山产量,这也让巨头们无法把握。夏杰思称,几年前,中国国内的矿山产量较大,每年有约4亿吨的产量?!跋衷诰菸颐枪兰瓶赡苁?.7亿吨。铁矿石价格上涨,(中国)矿山会不会恢复生产?我们很难预测中国的产量到底是升还是降?!?/p>

        最后是市场供给。淡水河谷史上最大的铁矿石项目——年产量9000万吨的s11d项目投产将为今年的市场供应带来增量。夏杰思预计,今年一共将有4000万吨的新增铁矿石投入市场。但由于s11d投产的消息早已被知悉,所以市场已经消化了这个扩产消息,市场供给方面对铁矿石价格的影响不会特别大。

        调整业务应对挑战

        矿业寒冬仍未完全度过,力拓也在调整业务架构应对挑战。除了将生产经营的重心向铜、铝业务倾斜,力拓还在推进钻石下游市场的开发合作,希望在中国销售更多的钻石,提升集团的现金流。

        据了解,阿盖尔矿是力拓钻石集团旗下两大在产钻石矿之一,全球超过90%的粉钻及红钻产自该矿区。力拓集团每年向全球供应1800万克拉钻石,大约获得1亿美元的营收。在这1800万克拉钻石中,大部分就产自阿盖尔矿。

        对此,夏杰思对国际商报记者指出,如果要对钻石市场做一个评价的话,力拓应该不会只对中国市场持谨慎态度,而是对全球市场都持谨慎态度?!拔揖醯米晔谐』嵊斜冉虾玫那熬?,因为钻石开采的过程非常难,从勘探发现钻石,到真正把它开采出来做成钻石,平均需要30年的时间,所以不管是它的稀有度还是开采成本,都是非常高的?!?/p>

        夏杰思认为,钻石在短期内可能会有一些供给过剩的状况,但是因为其开采难度较大,新的钻石矿产又没有被发现,所以从长远来看,力拓看好钻石市场。

        据悉,由于阿盖尔矿将于2020年资源枯竭而关闭,力拓正在积极推进戴维克钻石矿的扩产计划。预计2018年第四条生产管线将投产,这将对因阿盖尔关闭而导致的钻石产量下降做出一定补充。

        【免责声明】本文仅代表作者本人观点,与本网站无关。本网站对文中陈述、观点判断保持中立,不对所包含内容的准确性、可靠性或完整性提供任何明示或暗示的保证。请读者仅作参考,并请自行承担全部责任。

        

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