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      财经资讯 | 原油 | 黄金 | 白银 | 外汇 | 期货 | 贵金属 | 现货 | 网站地图
      您的位置:首页 > 现货 > 铁合金企业期现结合稳经营

      铁合金企业期现结合稳经营

      2018-09-22 14:10:09 作者:admin 点击:

      在昨日举行的第八届中国铁合金产业大会上,记者了解到,国内硅铁企业经过前几年的亏损,目前已扭亏为盈,锰硅企业今年也有利润,但利润微薄。与此同时,铁合金期货受到越来越多产业客

        在昨日举行的第八届中国铁合金产业大会上,记者了解到,国内硅铁企业经过前几年的亏损,目前已扭亏为盈,锰硅企业今年也有利润,但利润微薄。与此同时,铁合金期货受到越来越多产业客户的关注。

        铁合金行业利润情况改善

        “十一假期后,硅铁行业扭亏为盈,行业利润普遍在1000元/吨,大厂利润甚至达1800元/吨。锰硅的成本在6800元/吨左右,行业利润在100—300元/吨?!币晃黄笠等耸扛嫠咂诨跞毡钦?。

        “8月初某大型企业硅铁出现负库存现象,现货价格快速上涨,9月不少工厂门口出现排队拉货情况。长期在产的企业优势明显,依然靠长协客户和渠道优势获得了不错的利润?!备闷笠等耸克?。

        今年的硅铁需求好于前两年,在宁夏浩瑞森实业有限公司总经理刘黎明看来,这与取缔“地条钢”有一定关系。取缔“地条钢”后,转炉和电弧炉炼钢产量增加不少,但转炉炼钢的增量没有弥补“地条钢”取缔后的缺口,因此钢价上涨,相关原料需求增加。

        “虽然钢厂限产,但硅铁需求不减反增,短期呈现供应缺口扩大趋势,供应端产能释放缓慢;锰硅需求受钢厂限产影响较大,加之锰矿价格坚挺,后续到港的期矿价格也可能偏高,锰硅减产预期增强?!被磐虼锲诨跆辖鹧芯吭崩罹旮嫠呒钦?,短期来看,硅铁价格仍存上行空间,锰硅继续下跌空间有限。

        据记者了解,自2014年开始,随着国内硅铁产能的迅速扩张,产能过剩情况显现,硅铁行业洗牌悄然开始。目前来看,有电价优势的青海部分企业仍具备一定竞争力;甘肃地区除西北腾达、酒钢宏电之外,其他企业基本退出硅铁行业,但小企业会根据市场状况随时开停炉。内蒙古及陕西神府地区产业链比较健全的企业情况还可以,其他小规模企业对市场的影响很小?!笆苤朴诟叩缂?,宁夏80%的硅铁企业和产能已基本丧失了市场竞争力?!绷趵杳魉?。

        统计数据显示,硅铁目前开工产能内蒙古地区16万吨左右,青海地区9万吨左右,陕西神府地区4.5万吨左右,宁夏地区7.5万吨左右,甘肃地区3万吨左右,普通硅铁总产能在40万吨左右,较9月前减少近2万吨。

        刘黎明认为,由于宁夏的电力等成本居高不下,硅铁开工率长期维持高位的可能性不大。由此可以判断,硅铁价格底部将不断抬升。但如果冬季采暖期钢厂如期减产,需求继续趋弱,硅铁企业库存累积,大型企业渠道受到威胁,市场主流售价有继续小幅下调的可能。因此,后期硅铁市场涨跌还要看需求端和供应端的减产力度,以及硅铁原料的价格走势。另外,后期宁夏地区电价政策是否发生变化也值得关注。

        期货成为企业稳定经营的法宝

        长期以来,硅铁和锰硅定价都是钢厂招标,硅铁和锰硅企业没有定价权。但随着铁合金期货成交量增加、市场逐步活跃,期货市场的定价能力也在增强。在市场供需格局变化过程中,钢厂定价模式逐步转变,贸易商操作更加灵活,价格波动频率加大。

        据了解,今年7月硅铁期货成交放量,主力合约移仓的过程中近远月合约价差较大,近月合约商品属性增强,与现货价差较小,远月合约金融属性是产业客户关注的焦点。

        硅铁和锰硅都是钢材原料,是黑色系中的小品种,偶尔也会受到黑色系其他商品走势的影响。今年国庆节假期前,黑色系品种多重利空兑现,出现集体下挫,也使得铁合金价格反弹面临压力,但与其他品种相比,铁合金期价还比较抗跌。

        对于现货企业利用期货工具稳定经营,刘黎明有着较为丰富的经验?!耙皇瞧谙纸裘芙岷?,二是现货企业应适度参与,三是套期保值应严格遵守纪律,四是不忘初心、趋势操作、控制仓位、管好资金?!绷趵杳鞲嫠呒钦?。

        实际上,期货投资并不简单,每天需要收集大量信息,即使方向正确,还要考验投资者的心理承受能力。每天的浮盈浮亏,会带来心态的不断变化,能否操作好需要很好的定力和心理承受能力?!坝辛讼只趺骋鬃饕劳?,可以从实际的成交情况,获得最真实和及时的现货信息。有生产能力、固定销售渠道的工厂和有现货采购、销售渠道的贸易商,在期货投资方面底气更足?!绷趵杳魉?。

        另外,刘黎明建议,企业要灵活运用期货工具套期保值,不要“死套?!?。如果之前市场相对平静或较弱时期,在远月合约已做套保,到交割月前一两个月,市场强势持续,销售顺畅,尤其是销售价格已经超过或预期即将超过套保价格,应立即果断平仓,安心销售现货,当销售订单超过生产能力时,甚至可在期货上反手做多,保证订单的充足供应。当市场长期低于成本价格,生产或库存产品出现亏损,可以减产甚至停产,在期货盘面做多接货,保证自己现货渠道的通畅。

        

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