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      财经资讯 | 原油 | 黄金 | 白银 | 外汇 | 期货 | 贵金属 | 现货 | 网站地图
      您的位置:首页 > 财经资讯 > 股指上涨逻辑未变 后续首选低吸布局春季行情

      股指上涨逻辑未变 后续首选低吸布局春季行情

      2018-09-22 14:09:45 作者:admin 点击:

      提要沪指构筑3250底部之后,市场风险偏好改善成为推动指数上行的重要力量,涨价概念受到青睐,IH合约或表现更强。本周权益市场上行放缓,沪指站稳3400点之后有所停歇。目前

        提要

        沪指构筑3250底部之后,市场风险偏好改善成为推动指数上行的重要力量,涨价概念受到青睐,IH合约或表现更强。

        本周权益市场上行放缓,沪指站稳3400点之后有所停歇。目前来看,短线调整可定性为急涨后的补跌,催生市场上行的主逻辑并未发生变化,后续低吸布局春季行情仍是首选。

        市场风险偏好改善

        首先回顾元旦首周的躁动行情,从基本面维度进行分析,指数上行主要有三方面支撑:1.宏观层面,财新PMI超预期,经济韧性预期难以打破。同时资金利率显著下滑,产品赎回、监管考核等负面因素对于盘面的冲击降至低位,可以发现无论是融资市场还是陆港通,资金年后均有入场意愿。2.原油大涨再度引发通胀遐想,这一迹象可以从CFTC持仓报告中发现蛛丝马迹。无论是COMEX铜还是NYMEX原油非商业净多头寸均达到近一年相对高位,除大宗商品自身供需结构改善以外,税改落地推升美基建加速预期也是外资布局大宗商品的另一大缘由。国内2018年棚改规模超预期,资源股成为近期盘面的一大亮点。3.成本推动型通胀的逻辑正在兑现,近期白酒、啤酒先后提价,暗示利润由上游原材料传导至下游消费的逻辑正在形成,在2018年去产能情况尚不明确的情况下,一部分资金继续坚守消费。

        综上所述,权益市场目前处在风险空窗期,监管政策扰动暂时不会引发全局性调整,在沪指3250底部构筑完毕之后,偏好改善成为推动指数上行的重要力量,涨价概念成为资金关注的重点板块。

        中期向上趋势不改

        在指数连续上行之后,止盈盘对于盘面的扰动加大,10日市场盘中异动即是明证。若分析资金面对于盘面的实质影响,一方面,陆港通每日仍保持30亿元左右的净流入,在外围氛围偏暖的背景下,外资对A股始终有正向贡献,另一方面,元旦之后追涨效应显著改善,近日涨停个股数量在40只附近浮动。外资、游资的介入抵消了获利盘的扰动,盘面相对坚挺。

        对于1月中下旬行情,应重点关注三方面:一是地方两会动态,从历史经验来看,地方两会往往伴随概念炒作,如2017年新疆基建规模超预期成为当时的热点,因而可继续关注房屋租赁、自贸区、雄安新区、去产能、地方混改等政策中是否暗藏预期差。二是继续跟踪监管动向,302号文进一步确认了全年监管趋严的基调,叠加税改落地间接推升美国10年期国债收益率飙涨,后续固收市场异动可能成为权益市场的潜在隐患,是否引发股债联动需密切关注。三是继续跟踪涨价概念的确定性,去年12月CPI、PPI表现平平,但从食品分项回暖,交通等细分指标新高可以看出,涨价概念的确定性增强??悸堑降鼻叭嗣癖疑?、冬季限产的大环境仍利好涨价概念,一季度之前资源股仍有波段机会。

        中期维度,我们延续偏乐观的思路,短线由于止盈盘的扰动,带来盘面不稳。在流动性无忧的情况下,市场依然具备继续上攻的基础。风格方面,继续推荐权重股作为底仓,加码消费股、周期股,成长股在盈利改善前暂时无趋势性机会,因而IH合约在三大期指中稍强。

       ?。ㄗ髡叩ノ唬褐行牌诨酰?/p>

        

      ?

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