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      您的位置:首页 > 原油 > 【知乎分享】投行交易员的分析方法与野路子有何区别?

      【知乎分享】投行交易员的分析方法与野路子有何区别?

      2017-11-14 09:38:17 作者:admin 点击:

      高盛等顶级投行的自营交易员大都拥有高学历,他们的分析方法和交易手法同野路子有什么本质区别?而投行可以由交易员,数量分析师和程序员协同作战。例如在商品交易领域,退出现货交易之后,信息优势大大降低,投行相对于商品交易商往往是吃亏的一方。随着电子交易的兴起,欧美顶级投行的自营机构与野路子的差距在急剧减少,而在中国国内,已经没有任何区别。

        本文转自知乎社区(原文出处),版权归原作者所有,转载请联系原作者并注明出处。

        问:高盛等顶级投行的自营交易员大都拥有高学历,他们的分析方法和交易手法同野路子有什么本质区别?

        

        首先要理解的是:投行的交易本质上是一门生意而不是技术;而普通人的交易是技术而不是生意。在一级市场上,挣钱几乎全靠生意。即使在二级市场上,大部分的钱也是靠生意而不是靠技术。和学历相比,机构,人脉的关系更大。

        在经济分析,财务分析方面,投行相对于普通人并没有绝对的优势。一个刻苦钻研的,认真对企业做调研的,对经济作研究的,或者有内幕消息的个人投资者,完全可以做的比投行好。但是以下六个方面,投行相对于个人投资者是有优势的:

        第一、利润优势,做市业务可以产生一部分稳定的利润。虽然不如自营盘大,但提供了一个利润缓冲。

        第二、信息优势。作为做市商,会频繁和买方通话,看到大量的资金流动,对市场情绪掌控比一般人好。也容易接触到更多的企业高管。

        第三、渠道优势。有很多利润很高的业务是柜台交易,例如固定收益衍生品。普通人接触不到。分析方法和交易手法告诉你也没用,因为你接触不到这个市场,没有人卖给你。

        第四、垄断优势。在一些市场,几家大投行联合起来对市场有一定的控制能力。这个普通人也是做不到的。你不在这个圈子里的话,知道也没有用。

        第五、模型优势。一些复杂的模型凭个人单打独斗是研发不出来的。而投行可以由交易员,数量分析师和程序员协同作战。

        最后、风险管理优势。个人投资者的风险管理能力往往较差。投行相对来说控制的比较好。而且投行业务多,即使某一块业务出事往往也能撑住。比如摩根大通的伦敦鲸事件,光大乌龙指事件,机构都撑下来了。私募和个人抗风险能力差,一旦出大事就往往要清盘,极端的甚至会跳楼。

        当然投行也不是万能的。例如在商品交易领域,退出现货交易之后,信息优势大大降低,投行相对于商品交易商往往是吃亏的一方。所以,对于普通个人投资者的能力来说,最好的方法是按照巴菲特和彼得林奇的教导认真研究企业或商品,而有较好编程能力和数学基础的投资者可以尝试在交易所市场上用数量方法研究。这两种方法相对不依赖机构优势,对于个人投资者是比较可行的。

        补充一下:下图是德银做的世界上最大10家投行挣钱业务的划分。(当然题主问得是自营盘,我这里说的是整个业务部门,有点跑题了,只是给大家分享一些知识)个人投资者能接触到的一般只有股票(Cash Equity) ,商品和外汇,只是左下角和左上角的三个圆。其余的大量市场是普通个人投资者很难接触到的,希望给大家一个直观印象。

        

        

        随着电子交易的兴起,欧美顶级投行的自营机构与野路子的差距在急剧减少,而在中国国内,已经没有任何区别。原因是这样的,早年间我拓展欧美市场交易通道的时候,发现在欧美个人被鄙视的不是一般的鄙视那么简单,就算你几亿美金早就超过有的自营机构和基金的规模了,一样会被非常不公平的对待,所以欧美的机构通道绝对是有很多优势的,而且在DMA出现前还有券商中间报价截胡的问题,对赌交易的问题,不要以为欧美监管什么时候都很完美。

        年初的瑞朗的交易,提前半年准备,之所以获利,就是因为相关工作做的扎实,你们知道就算到现在很多投行和机构还找不到真正的交易对手是谁,当时费了好大劲的,当然是合规前提下。这么算来,大型机构实际上有时候不但已经没有了优势,还因为头寸通常过大而导致了劣势,这个同样也是伦敦鲸的原因以及很多时候所谓顶级投行自营被对冲基金猎杀的原因之一。

        另外,首先需要明确的是各大机构除非极个别纯量化自动化的,一律都有人工交易员,且非常普遍。这个你只要一看Bloomberg终端的使用率就知道了,这些交易员本身并没有那么神秘,大家都是工作,更多的身份,更像是两种,一种是操盘手,另一种是投行交易员。就跟国内商业银行投行部门的交易员一样,总行有终端,分行有的交易得撮合电话或者终端机线路聊天室敲定。而多年来所谓的自动化交易到百分之多少,实际上是这没有回事儿。

        首先,相当多的人工订单需要进行拆单发送,这个拆单策略,比如国内的机构版的下单软件里面的批量下单和拆单,被华尔街叫做算法交易,当然现在因为暗池和一些衍生品和规则的变化,订单类策略变得复杂了,但是绝大部分机构并没有想象的那么复杂和水平那么高,处于正常水平。统计的时候会发现这些订单都是机器通道如果是分通道的交易所和券商的话。

        再者,除去做市商的订单,有一些从事高频交易的机构实际上是充当了“做市商”的角色,所以订单流动性很大很多除非特殊情况还得保持市场里继续有,是不是过度交易这里先不说,但是如果简单的按照订单数量比例来进行统计,显然显得好像自动交易订单很多。之前也有很多利用这些伪做市商的策略,因为“做市商”策略通常没那么聪明。

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