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      您的位置:首页 > 原油 > 油市利空?;致?,油价料创两年多最大月跌幅

      油市利空?;致?,油价料创两年多最大月跌幅

      2018-10-30 13:33:14 作者:admin 点击:

      周二(10月30日),亚盘盘中,油价延续跌势。周一油价下跌,因俄罗斯表示其产量将保持高位,对全球经济的担忧使得原油价格有望实现自2016年

      周二(10月30日),亚盘盘中,油价延续跌势。周一油价下跌,因俄罗斯表示其产量将保持高位,对全球经济的担忧使得原油价格有望实现自2016年中期以来的最大月度跌幅。在美国对伊朗出口实施制裁之前,油市缺口有限。

      截止当前,美油现报66.90美元/桶,日内跌幅0.21%;布伦特原油现报76.94美元/桶,跌幅0.56%。油价自10月初达到四年来的高点以来,已经下跌了约10美元。美油期货合约本月下跌约8.5%,为2016年7月以来最大月度跌幅。

      美伊制裁仍是市场焦点


      美国将于11月4日生效对伊朗出口的制裁,这在很大程度上损害伊朗和全球原油供应。但美国原油库存连续五周增加,且钻井数量也持续增长,美国国内库存增加近3000万桶,令油市供需不足的担忧大幅减弱。再加上美股近期疲软,更推动油价下行。

      特朗普5月宣布退出伊核协议,并恢复对伊朗出口制裁以来,人们一直怀疑他是否能像他承诺的那样,让伊朗的石油销量降至零。


      这种悲观情绪在上周末得到了强化,此前伊朗石油部表示,作为应对制裁的战略的一部分,它已开始向伊朗的私人炼油商出售原油,用于出口。


      尽管美国要求各国企业停止从伊朗购买原油,但欧盟和印度等其他主要进口国正在寻找绕过美国制裁的办法。与此同时,特朗普政府担心俄罗斯会购买伊朗的石油,并将其作为自己的石油出售。


      除了对制裁影响的不确定性之外,OPEC和俄罗斯在库存不断增加的情况下,是否会减产的问题上发出了好坏参半的信号。


      石油市场的极度悲观情绪导致对冲基金和其他主要投机者上周大幅削减了对美国原油的看涨押注,降至一年多来的最低水平。

      俄罗斯与OPEC意见相左


      俄罗斯能源部长亚历山大诺瓦克上周六表示,俄罗斯没有理由冻结或削减其石油产量水平,并指出全球石油市场可能面临赤字风险。当俄罗斯开始谈论保持高产量时,甚至可能因为供应紧张而需要增加产量,这会带来一些抛售压力。


      OPEC产油国与俄罗斯为首的非OPEC产油国在6月同意提高石油供应,但OPEC上周随后表示,由于全球库存增加,OPEC可能不得不重新减产。

      股市压力导致油价走低


      由于对企业盈利的担忧以及对贸易紧张局势升级对经济增长的影响的担忧,全球股市的巨额亏损令原油和铜等工业商品受到冲击。标准普尔500指数有望发布自2010年5月以来最差的月度表现。

      受强劲的美国消费者支出数据的支持,美元指数仍维持高位,美元走强往往使得以美元计价的商品对其他货币持有者来说更加昂贵,这也是不利油价走高的因素之一。


      全球股市压力导致能源价格走低。由于需求前景变得更加不确定,基金经理已将原油期货和期权的看涨头寸连续四周下调至2017年7月以来的最低点。


      在美国对伊朗的制裁生效之前的几天,伊朗五大客户中有三个(印度,中国和土耳其)正在抵制美国方面关于终止石油采购的呼吁,他们认为全球没有足够的供应来取代伊朗石油出口。

      注意:上述资料不应被视为金融市场上投资建议或指导性意见,仅作为阅读参考使用。金融交易有风险,投资需谨慎。

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