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      财经资讯 | 原油 | 黄金 | 白银 | 外汇 | 期货 | 贵金属 | 现货 | 网站地图
      您的位置:首页 > 黄金 > 感谢2016年飞出的“黑天鹅” 金价录得四年以来首次

      感谢2016年飞出的“黑天鹅” 金价录得四年以来首次

      2017-11-02 17:17:55 作者:admin 点击:

      而彭博调查的26位分析师预计,2017年黄金价格可能上涨12%。美国的贸易?;ぶ饕逭吆椭忻乐淇赡芊⑸拿骋渍秸不嵬聘呋平鸺鄹?。2016年上半年黄金开启40年以来的最强涨势,但黄金价格从7月的高位开始下跌,投资者减少了黄金持有量,这主要是因为美国经济增长和利率上升使得股票等其他资产更加吸引力?;平餎TF在10月份的持有量创下3年来高位,但金价在11月8日后开始连续33个交易日下跌,创造2004年以来的最长跌势。

        特朗普时代标志着黄金进入避险资产的新时代。2016年政治、经济的“黑天鹅”频出,帮助黄金4年以来首次年度增长。而彭博调查的26位分析师预计,2017年黄金价格可能上涨12%。

        黄金的看涨前景来源于多个方面:潜在的贸易战争可能会损害中美之间的关系,英国脱离欧盟的复杂程序将带来不确定性,法国、德国和荷兰的大选可能会出现民粹主义的兴起,还有美国候任总统特朗普的“推特治国”也引发了担忧。GoldCore的董事长奥尼尔(Mark O’Byrne)表示:

        “特朗普每发出的未经过滤的140个字符都可能使美国和其最大的贸易伙伴制造紧张的局势。市场已经被英国脱欧所震撼了,未来欧洲的多国选举可能再次加强黄金避险资产的地位。我认为明年金价可能涨到1600美元/盎司?!?/p>

        温伯格领导的德国商业银行的分析师认为,如果欧洲各国的选举中反对派占优,投资者对黄金的需求将会增加。而且,美国的贸易?;ぶ饕逭吆椭忻乐淇赡芊⑸拿骋渍秸不嵬聘呋平鸺鄹?。而黄金公司Yamana Gold的首席执行官马龙(Peter Marrone)表示:

        “越来越多的国家出现了民族主义倾向和孤立主义倾向,这将会造成地缘政治和社会经济的波动,带来不稳定和风险?!?/p>

        2016年上半年黄金开启40年以来的最强涨势,但黄金价格从7月的高位开始下跌,投资者减少了黄金持有量,这主要是因为美国经济增长和利率上升使得股票等其他资产更加吸引力。而如果2017年美联储加息三次,特朗普也实现承诺推动基础设施支出增加、刺激经济增长,那么金价承压的可能性也将增大。

        黄金ETF在10月份的持有量创下3年来高位,但金价在11月8日后开始连续33个交易日下跌,创造2004年以来的最长跌势。高盛分析师此前表示,ETF的进一步抛售会加剧黄金价格下跌。新加坡中国银行的经济学家Barnabas Gan是彭博追踪到的第三季度对金价预测最准确的分析师,他预测2017年底金价将跌至1100美元/盎司。

        资产管理公司Insch Capital Management的首席执行官克鲁登(Christopher Cruden)管理着3.5亿美元的基金,他的黄金基金今年增长达39%。他认为,无论上涨还是下跌,黄金每一波行情都开启疯狂的走势,这是不合理的,但投资者可以利用这种不合理性,只要“站对了边”,就可以获得巨大的收益。

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