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      您的位置:首页 > 黄金 > 多重利空压顶,油价难改跌势逼近66关口

      多重利空压顶,油价难改跌势逼近66关口

      2018-10-25 17:42:47 作者:admin 点击:

      周四(10月25日)亚市盘初,现货黄金小幅上涨,一度刷新两日高点至1237 98美元 盎司,剧烈本周稍早触及的近三个月高点也相去不远,尽管美元指

      周四(10月25日)亚市盘初,现货黄金小幅上涨,一度刷新两日高点至1237.98美元/盎司,剧烈本周稍早触及的近三个月高点也相去不远,尽管美元指数仍位于隔夜创下的近两个月高点附近,但全球股市大幅下跌仍给金价提供支撑,技术面看涨信号仍在,金价有望延续涨势。

      ★基本面消息

      ①欧美股市全线收跌,亚股尾随其后


      美国股市周三(10月24日)收盘重挫;纳斯达克指数跌创五个半月新低,确认进入修正区域;道指和标普500指数悉数回吐年内涨幅,收盘创三个半月新低;因芯片生产商公布的财测令人失望,且新屋销售数据疲弱,引发对经济和企业获利增长的担忧。具体数据显示,道琼工业指数收盘2.41%,创;标普500指数重挫3.09%;纳斯达克指数暴跌4.43%,为2011年8月18日以来最大单日百分比跌幅。


      欧洲股市周三也延续跌势,泛欧STOXX600指数下跌0.2%,至22个月新低,为连续第六个交易日下挫,德股DAX指数收跌0.7%创近两年新低,法国CAC40指数收跌0.30%创一年半新低。


      亚洲股市周四尾随欧美股市跌势,截止8:45,日经225指数一度跌逾3%,创半年新低;南韩综合指数开盘跳空逾2%,创两年半新低。


      小编提醒,全球股市的走弱,再度提升了黄金的避险需求,有望帮助金价继续冲高。


      ②上一交易日欧美经济数据相对疲软


      据观察,美国9月新屋销售跌至近两年低位,因房贷利率和房价上升;美国商务部公布,上月新屋销售经季节性因素调整后年率为55.3万户,下降5.5%,这是自2016年12月以来的最低水平。8月销售年率从之前报告的62.9万户下修至58.5万户,新屋销售已经连续四个月下降。


      楼市表现不及经济强劲,分析师将低迷归咎于房贷利率上升和房价上涨,两者的升幅均已经超过了工资的增长,使得一些首次购房者负担不起。


      欧元区方面,欧元区10月制造业PMI录得26个月最低水平;德国民间部门增长步伐放缓至逾三年最慢,法国制造业PMI也触及25个月低位。


      汇通网提醒,这些经济数据暗示全球经济发展可能会放缓脚步,尤其是欧洲央行收紧货币政策的步伐可能会放缓,则有助于降低持有黄金的机会成本,部分利好金价。


      ③美联储官员讲话依然鹰派


      亚特兰大联储行长博斯蒂克周四凌晨再次发表偏鹰派讲话,称美国经济运行“相当良好”;而另外两位美联储官员的讲话也偏向鹰派。


      克利夫兰联储主席梅斯特表示,美国股市“长时间”跌势和风险增加将开始对美国经济构成压力,不过没有迹象显示经济将陷入衰退。


      达拉斯联储主席也称,美联储不再需要刺激美国经济,美联储应继续升息至少两次,但可能是三次,然后再评估是否有必要进一步升息以抑制经济增长


      另外,美联储经济状况褐皮书显示,因关税导致原材料成本增加,美国制造商称不得已上调价格,美国经济似乎正以温和至适度的步伐成长,诸多行业的企业报告劳动力短缺。


      提醒:目前美联储方面有关的消息还是偏向继续加息,这可能在中线对金价形成压制。


      ④美国会选举临近,前总统奥巴马、希拉里和CNN收到疑似爆炸装置


      美国国会选举还有不到两周时间,警方截获了送往前总统奥巴马和前民主党总统候选人希拉里,以及美国有线电视新闻网(CNN)纽约分部的疑似爆炸装置。这些个人和机构都是右翼批评人士针对的目标。美国特勤局称,周二(10月24日)晚些时候发现了寄给克林顿夫妇的包裹,周三早些时候又发现了寄给奥巴马的包裹,都是在例行的邮件筛选过程中发现的。当局表示,奥巴马和克林顿夫妇都没有任何危险。在总统特朗普的领导下,美国两极分化十分严重,可疑包裹事件将政治竞争的紧张程度带到一个新高度。


      该事件目前影响还比较中性,但需要继续保持关注。

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