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      您的位置:首页 > 黄金 > 美联储今年最后决议或加息之外还有惊喜,金价后市堪忧

      美联储今年最后决议或加息之外还有惊喜,金价后市堪忧

      2018-10-30 13:34:57 作者:admin 点击:

      据CME美联储观察最新数据,美联储今年12月加息25个基点至2 25%-2 5%区间的概率为65 8%。虽然市场长期以来一直预期,美联储将在今年联邦公开

      据CME“美联储观察”最新数据,美联储今年12月加息25个基点至2.25%-2.5%区间的概率为65.8%。虽然市场长期以来一直预期,美联储将在今年联邦公开市场委员会(fomc)最后一次会议上,将基准利率上调25个基点(0.25个百分点),然而,市场分析人士认为,美联储在联邦公开市场委员会最后一次会议上不仅仅是加息,还将批准另一项调整措施,以确保当前的政策路径顺利推进。

      美联储可能不得不对加息方式进行重要调整


      美国财政部预计在今年第四季度发放4250亿美元的净适销债务,较此前预期少150亿美元,预计在2019年第一季度发放3560亿美元的净适销债务,第三季度发放了3530亿美元的净适销债务。


      尽管没有迹象表明美联储正在考虑停止削减资产负债表规模,但是,如果美联储无法控制其基准利率的范围,那可能会导致其停止对资产负债表的平仓,资产负债表由美联储购买的债券组成,这些债券旨在降低抵押贷款利率并刺激经济,对经济和市场的影响是巨大的。


      在正常情况下,这一举措将伴随着美联储支付银行超额准备金利率(IOER)相应的25个基点的加息。目前的利率为2.2%,而基金利率为2%-2.25%。


      然而,基金利率已经上升到其区间的上限,达到2.2%,与银行超额准备金利率(IOER)持平,这带来了一个问题。


      美联储使用银行超额准备金利率(IOER)来指导基金利率,通常作为基金利率的下限。美联储通过准备金利率和隔夜回购安排(隔夜回购安排)来管理其基金利率,这也有助于美联储设定利率下限。


      今年,随着政府债券发行大幅增加,美联储购买回购债券的利率也有所上升,基金利率已跌至目标区间的上限。


      早在今年6月,美联储就解决了这个问题,将IOER利率提高了20个基点,试图将联邦基金利率进一步推高至区间中心。这在几个月里起了作用,但这两种利率已经越来越接近,并在10月23日达到2.2%的水平。

      美联储定量紧缩的“QT”


      凯投宏观资深美国经济学家迈克尔·皮尔斯(MichaelPearce)表示,美联储在目标区间的上限“失去了对利率的控制”。尽管只要美联储能够再次将基金利率控制在中间区间,“这一切对美联储来说都不算太麻烦”,但持续的压力可能会导致政策变化。


      Pearce在报告中称,“由于外汇储备充裕,有效基金利率不太可能升穿IOER的水准,然而,如果美联储真的这么做了,它可能会得出这样的结论:流动性过剩的程度低于此前的预期,因此,美联储的定量紧缩政策将过早结束。”


      重要的是,美联储官员在联邦公开市场委员会(FOMC)上次会议的会议纪要中指出,联邦基金利率的上升似乎并非源于储备不足,这将更加令人不安。美联储将每月允许500亿美元的美国国债和抵押贷款支持证券流出资产负债表,以努力将债券投资组合从4.5万亿美元的峰值(目前为4.2万亿美元)减少。


      有迹象显示,中国央行正在收紧货币政策,并对利率施加压力,这可能会促使中国央行放松资产负债表上的减支措施。


      在美联储是否应继续加息并缩减资产负债表的问题上面临越来越多的审查,市场已将这个过程称为定量紧缩的“QT”。


      银行分析师迪克·博夫(DickBove)表示,美国总统唐纳德·特朗普多次尖锐批评美联储加息,美联储“正在给经济强加一个新的僵化的金融体系”。


      不过,FOMC在9月份的会议纪要中指出,迄今为止,资产负债表计划引发了“温和”的市场反应。不过,这种情况是否会持续下去,可能取决于IOER和基金利率之间的关系。

      金价后市或将处境不佳


      花旗集团经济学家AndrewHollenhorst表示,他甚至对美联储是否可能在11月6-7日的FOMC会议上将IOER利率降至2.15%提出质疑,以进一步收紧联邦基金利率。


      AndrewHollenhorst表示:“在政策正?;墓讨?,将一个关键政策利率下调5个基点的做法存在明显的缺陷。因此,我们认为,除非(联邦基金利率)超过2.25%(在我们看来,不太可能),否则11月份降息5个基点的可能性不大。”


      周一(10月29日),美元因加息前景走强,金价从上日触及的逾三个月峰值回落,RJOFutures高级市场策略师BobHaberkorn表示,由于利率上升的前景,转向安全资产的资金不会流向黄金,而是流向美元。

      法国巴黎银行的HarryTchilinguirian指出,利好因素将会被美国经济力道和美元的涨势所抵消,尽管股市挫跌但美元仍旧上扬,并且美国还要升息几次,他预计明年金价将可能下跌。


      外媒根据对39位分析师和交易员的调查结果显示,银行和券商在8月金价跌至19个月低位后,已经下调了今年和2019年的平均金价预测。

      注意:上述资料不应被视为金融市场上投资建议或指导性意见,仅作为阅读参考使用。金融交易有风险,投资需谨慎。

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